Monday, February 8, 2016

Post Iowa/Pre New Hampshire primary thoughts...

On the eve of the New Hampshire Primaries, how do we analyze the field of Republican candidates?  Except for the fact that Christie doesn't much like Rubio, ABC's Saturday night debate certainly didn't clarify much - other than perhaps play into the public perception that media bias is alive and well.




The exclusion from the ABC debate of Carly Fiorina - one of the field's most lucid and refreshing Republican candidates - was only the most recent example of the liberal media's constructing and defending its negative stereotype of the Republican party.  Having an articulate and thoughtful woman standing next to a thoughtful and accomplished black man on the stage of a Republican debate blows up the whole false narrative they have worked so hard for decades now to perpetuate.  So ABC barred the only woman in the GOP race from the debate stage, despite the fact that there was an empty podium sitting unused backstage available for her.


Despite the urging of both Ben Carson and Ted Cruz, ABC was doggedly unwilling to accommodate a change in circumstances and continued to stick with their flawed qualification rules. Rand Paul, who dropped out of the race earlier in the week, had qualified to debate - Fiorina had failed to make the cut.  That made her the only candidate running who was denied an opportunity to debate.  To keep her out, they had to argue the ridiculous position that Paul, a candidate who was no longer running, could still participate if he wished, but Fiorina, who had gotten more delegates in Iowa than either Kasich and Christie, could not participate. * (see below)




Consider this:  Two Latinos - Cruz and Rubio - plus an African-America - Carson - garnered 60% of the GOP caucus-goer's votes in Iowa.  But wait... the entities that make up what is falsely called the 'mainstream media' continuously propagates the narrative that the Republican base is ignorant, lilly-white racist, and hopelessly out-of-touch with the nation's changing demographics and morals.  Meanwhile, the two Democratic candidates left in the race are senile, white, senior citizens pushing each other further to the left in an attempt to prove their relevancy and buy votes.  Doesn't that just blow up ABC's faulty wordview?




Can you imagine the stories if the situation was reversed?  Headlines and editorials saying: Republicans Aging Demographic Spells Trouble, GOP is Out of Touch with Gen-Xers, The Monochrome Coalition, GOP is WOP (White's Only Party), The Geriatric Generation, etc.  Go ahead and have fun with it - I'm sure you can come up with some of your own.




On New Hampshire's election eve, we are told that both Trump and Sanders have double digit leads.  Bernie Sander's lead only goes to prove that today's Democratic party is in serious trouble.  What do you do if you are a Democrat?  You get to choose between a 75 year old self-avowed socialist redistributionist  -or-  an 'about-to-be-indicted' chameleon who despite denying actually being a socialist, is unable to define what a socialist is.  And she may be right in her denials - with her multiple and close ties to crony capitalists - she does appear to be more a fascist than socialist in my mind.




Having reread that last paragraph, I think I portrayed a lot more confidence in the Obama Justice Department than I actually have.  Be it about her phenomenally profitable forays into cattle futures trading, her outright deception of the families of those killed in Benghazi, or lying about her felonious disregard for Classified documents and the security of our country, Hillary has proved remarkably resilient due, no doubt, to the sheer vastness of the web of corruption that has surrounded her since her Arkansas days. I have serious doubt that our current president and alleged "Constitutional Scholar" has enough respect for the law to actually allow his Justice Department to enforce it in an even-handed manner.  Hillary won't be exchanging her tan pantsuit for an orange jumpsuit any time soon.


Donald Trump's lead in the polls illustrate the level of frustration among Republican voters and will test whether those who indicate support in polls are actually willing to go out and vote for the guy.  Remember, the Des Moines Register poll taken a few days before the Iowa caucuses was not accurate.  Conventional wisdom said that Trump was the big loser for skipping the debate just prior to the Iowa precinct caucuses.  I doubt skipping helped him, but, as one who has actually participated in precinct caucuses in Iowa, consider how much work is involved.  Participants have to give up an entire evening, go out on a cold winter night, declare their party affiliation, show up for and spend a couple hours in a political meeting, and (literally) stand up in plain sight of your neighbors and friends for your candidate.  There is no anonymity, no Democrats allowed to vote, and few, if any, uncommitted participants.  Perhaps the format of a caucus doesn't well suit Trump's mixed and eclectic constituency - many of whom may not be registered Republicans.



In New Hampshire, Bush, Christie, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio, and possibly Carson are all vying for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th spots.  One or more of those who don't do so will likely go the way of Huckabee and Paul, and drop out.  I agree that Bush is in serious trouble.  The man doesn't seem to really be comfortable as a candidate, and Lindsey Graham's endorsement is a compelling reason NOT to vote for him. But with his campaign's deep pockets, don't look to Bush dropping out this soon, no matter how poorly he continues to show.  Cruz, Rubio, and hopefully Carson are in this for the long haul, hoping for more fertile ground in South Carolina.  Christie and Kasich are not both going to last.  Personally, I think a vote for Kasich is a vote for the status quo of the Republican party, but he is polling well among New Hampshire's more moderate Republican voters.  And keep in mind, this is an open primary - independents and Democrats can vote here.  There are still many undecided voters.


I'm sure I'll be up late on Tuesday night!


-----------------------------------------------------------------
* ABC: No Last Minute Invite for Fiorina to Debate


Addendum - New Hampshire final results per WMUR, an ABC News affiliate: 
http://www.wmur.com/politics/2016-full-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-election-results/37649066



President - GOP Primary
February 10, 2016 - 03:57PM ET
New Hampshire - 300 of 300 Precincts Reporting - 100%
NamePartyVotesVote %
Trump, DonaldGOP100,40635%
Kasich, JohnGOP44,90916%
Cruz, TedGOP33,18912%
Bush, JebGOP31,31011%
Rubio, MarcoGOP30,03211%
Christie, ChrisGOP21,0697%
Fiorina, CarlyGOP11,7064%
Carson, BenGOP6,5092%
Paul, RandGOP1,9001%